Heating costs in winter 2026: Where does the heat pump stand?

Oil, gas and pellets are rising sharply before winter. Am I on the safe side with a heat pump, or will I be hit just as hard with electricity? We are hearing this question a lot right now. The short answer: The heat pump is in a good position at the moment. However, how good is determined less by the electricity price than by how neatly your system is planned and adjusted.

What the current figures show

The Österreichische Energieagentur (Austrian Energy Agency) evaluates household energy prices every month, based on data from Statistik Austria. The Energiepreisindex (Energy Price Index) of 21 September 2026 for the month of August shows a clear picture. Compared to August 2025, heating oil cost 48,1 % more, wood pellets 32,0 % more and natural gas 7,9 % more. Electricity for households, on the other hand, was 10,7 % cheaper than a year earlier. From July to August, the electricity price remained unchanged, while heating oil increased by 12,3 % in this single month.

The background is well known. According to a press release by the Energieagentur from 28 August 2026, the European gas price has doubled since the start of the Iran war. Austria sources more than 90 percent of its gas and around 95 percent of its oil from imports and has no influence on these prices.

To be honest: This is not an all-clear for the electricity price. Looking at the wholesale markets, the Energieagentur expects larger fluctuations in the coming months, and this affects electricity just as much as gas and district heating. These prices usually run on longer supply contracts and therefore react later. And we have not found a current heating cost comparison as of 2026 from public authorities that puts the heat pump in euros per year alongside oil, gas and pellets. We therefore deliberately do not mention any annual costs here.

Why the heat pump is less dependent on price jumps

A heat pump does not burn anything. It extracts most of the heat from the air, the ground or the groundwater; the electricity only drives the cycle. How well this works is shown by the seasonal performance factor (Jahresarbeitszahl, or JAZ for short): the ratio between the heat generated over a whole year and the electricity required for it. According to klimaaktiv (the Austrian climate protection initiative), modern devices achieve a JAZ between 3 and 5. The Energieinstitut Vorarlberg calculates with a JAZ of 3 in its fuel comparison, i.e. with three times the amount of heat from every kilowatt hour of electricity.

Therefore, an increase in the electricity price only affects a part of the heat; the rest comes free of charge from the environment. Franz Angerer, Managing Director of the Energieagentur, summarises it like this: "Anyone who switches to a heat pump or an electric vehicle makes themselves more independent of prices that are set elsewhere", according to the press release from August.

When things get tight

The JAZ is not a fixed property of the device. It depends on how warm the heat source is and how hot the heating water needs to be, i.e. on the flow temperature. The smaller the gap between the two, the less electricity the system needs. According to klimaaktiv, every degree less in flow temperature reduces the annual electricity consumption by 2 to 2,5 %. Conversely, an unnecessarily high flow temperature costs money every year.

Things get tight mainly in three cases:

• High flow temperature: An unrenovated house with small radiators needs a lot of heat at a high temperature on cold days. As a rule of thumb, klimaaktiv states: If all rooms get warm with a maximum flow temperature of 55 °C on a cold winter day, a heat pump is suitable even without further measures.
• Poor sizing: A system that is too small will often have the electric heating element running in winter; one that is too large will cycle frequently and wear out faster. The basis must be a standard-compliant heating load calculation, not an estimate based on square metres.
• Air as a source in the cold: Air source heat pumps are cheap to buy, but need more electricity exactly when it is coldest outside. This is normal and taken into account in good planning.

The Upper Austrian Energiesparverband (Energy Saving Association) gives a guideline value of a JAZ of at least 3,5 for air source heat pumps and at least 4 for ground source and water source heat pumps. If your system is significantly below this, it is worth taking a closer look.

What you can do specifically now

You already have a heat pump: Before the heating season, read the amount of heat and electricity consumption of the last year from the controller or the meter and divide the two values. This is your actual JAZ. Check with your installer whether the heating curve can be lowered, and ask about hydraulic balancing. According to the Energiesparverband, hydraulic balancing reduces heating energy consumption by 10 to 15 %. Find out more in the guide on flow temperature.

Check your electricity tariff: The Energieagentur advises comparing existing electricity and gas contracts with current offers right now. An independent comparison is provided by the Tarifkalkulator (tariff calculator) of E-Control. Pay attention to whether there is a separate tariff for your heat pump and how long the price is guaranteed.

You are planning the switch: First have the heating load calculated; the heating load calculator gives you an initial orientation. The cost comparison shows which heating system costs how much with your values, and with the heat pump calculator you can estimate what a system will consume in your home. When doing so, calculate with electricity prices that can also rise. A well-planned heat pump can withstand this.

If you want concrete figures for your house, you can get quotes from up to three checked installers via our request for quotes, free of charge and without obligation.